Saturday, 1 November 2025

Embodied AI and General Purpose Robots

 Robot disruption is getting closer with humanoid robots

 


 

 

There has been a lot of attention on recent developments in artificial intelligence (AI), with new releases like GPT-5 and video AI systems like Sora and Nano banana. While all this has been going on there has also been rapid development of ‘embodied AI’, which adds AI to robots to make them more flexible and capable, and in particular to make humanoid robots that interact, are dexterous, and agile. National strategies like China’s Intelligent Manufacturing 2025, Japan’s robotics initiatives, Germany’s Industry 4.0, and U.S. innovation policies all actively promote the robot industry.

 

General purpose robots include quadrupeds, wheeled robots, and humanoids, as in the figure above. Some have a base with human arms and torsos, because the legs and waist of a humanoid are expensive. However, there are many new two legged humanoid robots intended for logistics, industrial assembly and automation tasks. Humanoid robots operate in an environment built for people, able to perform physical tasks in unstructured spaces with minimal reprogramming. 

 

Figure 1. US Humanoid robots 

Note: Sanctuary AI is Canadian.  Amazon has begun testing Digit at their R&D site. Hyundai owns Boston Dynamics and will use Electric Atlas in its Georgia US car plant

 

This post looks at the state of play of industry use of robotics and AI with  a focus on embodied AI and humanoids, starting with recent reports from McKinsey on automation and robotics. The 2025 International Federation of Robotics annual report on sales and use and a recent position paper on humanoids is covered, followed by a report on Chinese robotics shows in Beijing and Shanghai. China’s humanoid robotic strategy is discussed, then Australia’s robotics strategy and roadmap. There is a section on construction robots with a new McKinsey report on humanoids in construction, and discussion of the Robot as a Service model and the potential of humanoid subcontracting in construction.  The Amazon robotics system used in their newest warehouses is described. This post covers a lot of ground and is longer than usual. 

 

McKinsey’s Robotics Research

 

A June 2025 McKinsey report Will embodied AI create robotic coworkers? opens with ‘General-purpose robotics funding grew fivefold from 2022 to 2024, surpassing $1 billion in annual investment, with leading start-ups such as Figure AI, Skild AI, and Agility Robotics raising hundreds of millions of dollars. Patent filings have also surged, with a 40 percent CAGR in volume since 2022…. China has designated embodied AI a national priority, anchoring a $138 billion innovation fund’ [1]. McKinsey estimated that the general-purpose robotics market could reach about $370 billion by 2040.

 

The report found general purpose robots capable of grasping, lifting and placing items are not here yet, ‘but the building blocks are emerging fast.’ Barriers like task specific data and battery life will be addressed, supply chains for components and sensors will develop, and autonomy and dexterity will improve. The report had the figure below on industry tasks. 

 

Figure 2. Robots and tasks 

Source

 

There was a second McKinsey report in July, A Leap in Automation: The New technology Behind General-Purpose Robots. This starts with ‘advances in software are now making general-purpose robots viable by enabling them to learn, adapt, and act in real time, without human intervention. Simultaneously, hardware improvements are optimizing robot dexterity, sensing, and power.’ Foundation models provide the ‘most straightforward path to improve robot capabilities’ to skill levels comparable or greater than humans. That report concludes ‘software and hardware challenges ahead may seem daunting, but recent advances suggest that general-purpose robots could take workplace automation to new heights. The only questions are how quickly progress will occur and whether companies will embrace change rapidly or hesitate.’

 

Figure 3. Robotic capabilities and foundation models 

Source

 

Also in July, the McKinsey 2025 Technology Trends Outlook section on robotics noted that interest and innovation metrics for robotics increased by double digits from 2023 to 2024 and the market is expanding ‘with adoption in emerging sectors like agriculture and healthcare, the development of cobots, and broader deployment in manufacturing and logistics.’ (Cobots are collaborative robots for shared workspaces).

 

There were two examples of robotic foundation models: Covariant’s RFM-1 helps robots understand how objects move and interact in the real world, follow language-based instructions, and reflect on their own actions; and Figure AI’s Helix, a vision-language-action model that enables humanoid robots to perform complex tasks, enabling dynamic object recognition and collaboration without prior training. 

 

The Trends Outlook also had four examples of industrial applications: Amazon’s AI-driven cobots in its warehouses automate pick-and-place and palletization tasks; Tortuga AgTech’s robots identify and pick fruit; KFoodtech’s BotBob cooks traditional Korean stew; and Sanctuary AI’s advanced haptics tactile sensors and Meta AI’s Digit 360 have robotic dexterity. Two humanoid robot examples were: GXO Logistics agreement with Agility Robotics to deploy the Digit robot to automate tasks like moving totes and managing palletization; and Hyundai plans to deploy their Boston Dynamics Electric Atlas in automotive manufacturing as a cobot. 

 

McKinsey claims the market for service robots in areas such as logistics, hospitality, and agriculture has been growing at 20 to 35 percent annually, and many of these robots do not resemble humans. For example, autonomous mobile robots (AMRs) that transport medical supplies in hospitals or materials within a warehouse resemble a robotic household vacuum more than a person. 

 

Figure 4. European and UK humanoid robots 

Note: NVIDIA announced a partnership with 1X in March to develop home robots. Talos II is a heavy lift robot, Ameca a companion robot, and Kime operates a drinks stand.

 

International Federation of Robotics Annual Report

 

The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) is a nonprofit industry trade group. The membership in Figure 5 is mainly European, American and Japanese companies, and the absence of many Chinese manufacturers is striking (e.g. non-members include Siasun, Step and HGZN in industrial automation, and Unitree, UBTech, Hanson, and Hikrobot in service robots). The many Chinese R&D institutes are also conspicuous by their absence. 

 

Figure 5. IFR members  

Source. Note: In October 2025 ABB sold its robotics business to Softbank. 

 

Each year IFR issues a World Robotics Report, which has a press release with some figures on trends. The 2025 report came out in September with data for 2024, and is divided into two sections, one on industrial robots and the other on service robots. Industrial robots are ‘automatically controlled, reprogrammable multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes’ and service robots are a ‘robot in personal use or professional use that performs useful tasks for humans or equipment,’ with the key difference that an industrial robot makes a physical product in a factory. Drones and autonomous vehicles are excluded. The IFR follows the International Standards Organisation definitions of robots.

 

Industrial Robots

 

KUKA (German), ABB (Swiss), Fanuc and Yaskawa (Japan) dominate industrial robot manufacturing with about 57% of the market. Other major manufacturers are Mitsubishi, Denso and Nachi (Japan), Omron and Standard Bots (US) and Staubli (Swiss).

 

IFR members reported a total number of industrial robots in operational use of 4,664,000, an increase of 9% on 2023. For many years the use of industrial robots was primarily in the two industries of electronics and cars but, while those are still the two biggest users, they now account for less than half of the market as the Metal and machinery and Other industries categories increase. In 2014 Automotive was 43% of the robot market, down to 23% in 2024. 

 

Figure 6. Industry use of industrial robots

 
Source

 

 

For the last four years, annual installations were over 500,000 units, and in 2024 Asia accounted for 74% Europe 16%, and the Americas 9%. IFR forecasts annual installations rising from 575,000 in 2025 to 708,000 in 2028, with 550,00 of the 2028 installations in Asia

 

China is the  largest market, with 54% of global installations and 295,000 industrial robots installed in 2024. Chinese manufacturers domestic market share has increased to 57%, up from 26% a decade ago, and China’s operational robot stock of over 2 million is the largest of any country. Japan is the second-largest market with 44,500 units installed in 2024 and 450,500 units in use. The US installed 32,200 and had 393,700 robots, South Korea installed 30,600 and had 392,900 robots, and Germany installed 27,000 and had 278,900 robots. These are by far the five largest markets. 

 

Service Robots

 

The IFR category of service, mobile, and medical robots includes robots that can autonomously drive around warehouses and pick items off shelves, robots for professional cleaning, search and rescue robots, and robots that can conduct laboratory tests or assist with surgery. There is much less data on service robots and the IFR notes: ‘All numbers based on a sample of 293 producers of total 944 manufacturers. Data is not projected to the whole industry. Sample composition varies each year.’ This recognises the absence of major robot developers and users like Amazon as members.

 

Figure 7. Service robot installations 2024

 
Note: Search, rescue and security robot installations were 3,128.

 

The IFR explains the ‘service robot industry is more heterogenous than the industrial robot industry’. There are 944 service robot producers, excluding prototyping services and system integrators, many companies are in the funding or prototyping stage and 80% are small or medium-sized enterprises with up to 500 employees.

 

In 2024, sales of professional service robots were over 199,000 units, and grew by 9% from 2023, and  for consumer use 20.1 million units were sold, an increase of 11%. Sales of  medical robots in 2024 were particularly strong with close to 16,700 units sold and a growth rate of 91%.

 

Humanoid Robots

 

The final page of the IFR press release is on humanoid robots, with four bullet points: 

 

·      There is no massive use today but serial production in preparation;

·      Manufacturers are building humanoid robots for R&D purposes for several years and producing on demand;

·      New companies in the market do build humanoids at a demonstrator or prototype stadium for first trial applications;

·      Application fields of humanoids still have to be determined and proven in practice.

 

Despite the garbled syntax, the IFR believes humanoid robots are not yet happening, because they are still in the R&D and prototype stage. There is also no section on humanoid robots on their web site. In August 2025 the IFR published a position paper on Humanoid Robots – Vision and Reality. That looked at regional differences: the US has a focus on practical applications; China is using humanoids in service sectors, and the strategy is to establish a supply chain for key components that is scalable; in Japan robots are regarded as companions rather than tools; and in Europe the focus is on ethics, human-centric design, and the social impact of robots. The paper concluded with ‘human-like dexterity and adaptability, humanoids are well placed to automate complex tasks with which current robots struggle using traditional programming methods. However, mass adoption as universal household helpers may not happen in the near or medium term.’

 

The narrow IFR/ISO definitions of industrial and service robots are becoming unworkable as autonomy increases and the range of robot forms widens to include AMRs, various drones, quadrupeds, and of course humanoids. While some of these are commonplace, like Amazon bots and autonomous mobile robots in warehouses, and others like autonomous drones for inspections and cleaning are becoming more widely used. 

 

Robots in China

 

There is an industry expo or event on automation and robotics most months of the year in China, and they are huge. The World Robot Conference 2025 was in Beijing in August. The five day event had over 1,500 exhibits from more than 200 companies, both Chinese and international, and featured ‘embodied AI’ in a wide variety of robots. There is a 20 minute video on YouTube with bird and quadruped robots, humanoid robots dancing, playing music, pouring drinks, greeting people, folding laundry, preparing and delivering meals, as well as the more familiar pick and place, fetch and carry, maintenance, monitoring and industrial robots. US company Skild demonstrated their ‘shared, general-purpose brain’, an AI that can learn to perform tasks across different robot forms. They intend to operate a business model similar to OpenAI, selling access to a foundation model for customers to create robots for different tasks in a wide range of scenarios. 

 

Then in  September there was the Robotics Show in Shanghai. Held annually since 2012, it covered everything from industrial and humanoid robots to logistics solutions, including collaborative robots (cobots), service robots, robotics for palletizing and material handling, and mobile systems. Exhibitors also included core component suppliers like servo motors, controllers, gear units and machine vision. This year’s event saw the launch of thousands of new products. 

 

Figure 8. Chinese humanoid robots 


 

In a report on the Shanghai Robotics Show, Foundamental partner Patric Hellerman says: ‘China's domestic robotics market provides manufacturers with a testing ground and scaling platform that no Western market can replicate, creating an insurmountable advantage in deployment experience and product iteration speed. For anyone building upstream robotics hardware (arms, cobots, electrical or mechanical components) in the West, this creates an uncomfortable business reality. Your ONE domestic market isn't large enough to provide equivalent learning opportunities. Your ONE customer base isn't dense enough to support the same rate of iteration. Your ONE ecosystem doesn't have the same depth of suppliers, integrators, and supporting infrastructure.’

 

Chinese manufacturers are selling thousands of units monthly to domestic customers, and intense domestic competition forces low prices, so Chinese prices are three to six times lower than Western market prices. A ‘thirty-thousand-dollar robot in Shanghai becomes ninety thousand to one hundred eighty thousand dollars in Munich or Manchester.’ Western competitors cannot match those prices ‘without destroying their business models entirely.’  Less intense Western competition allows market segmentation and premium pricing.

 

Hellerman argues China is following the same strategy used to build dominance in solar panels, batteries and EVs: ‘Western robotics companies burning venture capital to build factories are bringing equity tools to a debt fight, creating unsustainable cost structures that cannot compete with manufacturers accessing patient, cheap capital designed specifically for industrial buildout.’ Western venture capital is ‘structurally disadvantaged for capital-intensive hardware manufacturing competing against systematic debt availability, subsidies, and export incentives.’

 

Figure 9. More Chinese humanoids


 

In December there will be the Shanghai Humanoid Robot and Robotics Technology Expo, with ‘robot core components, full machine manufacturing, and system integration solutions’ the expo aims to accelerate innovation and commercialisation in humanoid robotics. ‘Backed by Beijing’s strategic support and deep technological resources, the expo promotes industrial scaling and collaborative application development across scientific, industrial, and service domains.’

 

Figure 10. Humanoid robots new in 2024

Source

 

China’s Robot Strategy

 

China has gone from being a technological follower a decade ago to an innovator in industrial automation and robotics, with advances in control systems, sensors, manipulators and drive mechanisms. Its robot industry has grown through a combination of research funding, technological breakthroughs, market diversification, and a great deal of policy support.The rapid growth of the country's robotics industry has robots now used in warehouses, education, entertainment, cleaning services, security inspection and medical facilities. A supply chain of components is now established. 

 

China is prioritizing AI development in robotics and embodied intelligence. The 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Robot Industry by 2025 was released in in 2021, followed by the Robot+Application Action Plan in 2023. In April 2025 the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology claimed the country holds over 190,000 active robotics patents, accounting for roughly two-thirds of the global total. The AI+ plan announced in August set adoption targets above 70% by 2027 and 90% by 2030, and an intelligent economy and society by 2035. The central government included embodied intelligence as one of four future industries in its 2025 work report: ‘We will establish a mechanism to increase funding for industries of the future and foster industries such as biomanufacturing, quantum technology, embodied AI, and 6G technology’ (p.18). 

 

A roadmap to 2030 adopted at the second Embodied AI Conference in March 2025 had three stages: 

1.        2025 to 2027, foundation: Shared datasets and open middleware.

2.        2028 to 2030, scaling: Deployment in factories, logistics, elder‑care pilots

3.        Post‑2030, generalization: Mass‑market humanoids and composite robots.

 

These stages are in progress. The Huisi Kaiwu platform was unveiled in March as a universal software system for robotic intelligence, allowing robots to be programmed for different tasks. The project is overseen by the Beijing Innovation Center of Humanoid Robots, jointly funded by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Beijing municipal government, private firms and research institutions. A standard for robotic elder care was released in February, with technical benchmarks for product design, manufacturing, testing, and certification. This year will see mass production of humanoid robots as UBTech Robotics secured orders for more than 500 from car companies, expecting to reach 1,000-2,000 orders by the end of 2025, Zhiyuan Robotics plans to expand sales to 3,000-5,000 by the end of 2025, and  Unitree has sold 1,000 humanoid robots.

 

A major problem for humanoid robots is the lack of training data because, unlike large language models that have been trained on the internet, they require data on work processes. To tackle this data deficiency AgiBot set up a data collection factory in Shanghai in 2024, using around 100 robots to gather 30,000 to 50,000 data points a day. At the end of the year AgiBot released the AgiBotWorld dataset, with ‘more than 1 million trajectories from 217 tasks across five major scenarios’ as open source training data.  

 

The Mercator Institute for China Studies 2023 report on China’s Innovation Chain found 173 High-Tech Industrial Development Zones (HIDZ). These are under the Ministry of Science and Technology and host 84% of State Key Laboratories. There are also 230  Economic and Technological Development Zones (ETDZs), which are similar to HIDZs but under the Ministry of Commerce. The report uses the Shenyang robotics and smart manufacturing cluster as an example. It has the  State Key Laboratory for Robotics at the Shenyang Institute of Automation, and the anchor tenant is Siasun, a robotics company spun out of  the Chinese Academy of Sciences (a government research agency) with subsidiaries in Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Germany.

 

The Chinese government has established other innovation hubs focused on robotics supported by the national and provincial governments, with incentives for manufacturers to locate near the research centres. Dongguan robot city has a robotics research institute at the core, and in Shenzhen the Huawei (Shenzhen) Global Embodied Intelligence Industry Innovation Center started in 2024, partnering with local robotics firms Leju Robotics, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Daju Robotics.

 

The Mercator Institute report concluded:  ‘China’s central government is focusing on extracting more economic value out of research spending and developing market-ready technologies that may provide an advantage in a geopolitical era where technological supremacy is seen as a key source of power. This desire to commercialize research has led China’s government to reorganize its innovation system around the idea of the innovation chain. To achieve this, Beijing has embarked on a long and painful process of reforming funding programs, institutional support, and zoning policies….Additional policies and updates to evaluation criteria for scientific research are also shifting emphasis to marketization over other R&D outputs.’ 

 

Figure 11. Humanoid robots forecast

Source

 

Australia’s Robotics Strategy

 

Australia's May 2024 robotics strategy is a ‘framework for a robotics and automation ecosystem to increase productivity and competitiveness.’ The strategy has four themes: national capability; increasing adoption; trust, inclusion, and responsible development; and skills and diversity. The strategy seeks to ‘use robotics and automation to help meet challenges like climate change, an aging population, and geopolitical risks.’ 

 

The strategy has as examples autonomous trucks in mining (700 in 2022), SwarmFarm Robotics in agriculture, and Finisar Australia manufacturing optical switching technology. It argues Australia has research expertise and growing local capability. However, a year and a half after the strategy was launched, its concluding claim is either aspirational or delusional: ‘Australia has unique advantages in contributing to the AI systems that will continue to revolutionise robotics into the future. Not only is Australia a leader in AI R&D, but our companies and researchers are already actively developing robotics software solutions to address problems across a range of industries.’ While mining and agricultural systems are world class, the lack of funding for R&D and  startups means Australia is far from the technological frontier. 

 

Robotics Australia Group Roadmap

 

The Robotics Australia Group (RAG) has over 70 members across 14 industry chapters. There was a 2025 update of their Roadmap, which said Australian companies are ‘starved’ of capital compared to international competitors, as over the last nine years 10 companies have raised only USD$255 million, and another 144 companies shared USD$30m [see 1]. The Roadmap has many examples of development and use of robots in Australian industries like autonomous machinery in mining, palletizing and lifting in manufacturing, and picking and packing in agriculture. There is a chapter on construction robots, with these examples of applications in Australia:

 

·      Autonomous or semi-autonomous earth-moving machinery;

·      Brokk remote controlled demolition robot;

·      Autonomous or semi-autonomous robotic cranes;

·      Modbotics manufactures timber house frames with a Randeck Robotics system;

·      Schindler’s RISE robot used for drilling in elevator shafts;

·      Robotics 3D concrete printing;

·      Aptella uses HP SitePrint for autonomous road marking and site layout;

·      Inspection and monitoring drones using Presien AI vision technology;

·      FlyFreely drone management platform;

·      FBR’s Hadrian X bricklaying robot, now available as a subcontract. 

 

Construction Robots

 

post in August last year included 17 robots in use onsite: three for bricklaying, five for layout printing and surveying, four for reality capture and site monitoring, and one for each of drywall finishing, anchor hole drilling, rebar fixing, underfloor insulation, and solar farm construction. None were humanoids. Following the ISO definition used by IFR, excluded were exoskeletons, offsite manufacturing, remote controlled drones, autonomous excavators and graders, and onsite 3D concrete printing (which was the subject of this 2022 post).

 

Last week McKinsey published Humanoid Robots in the Construction Industry: A Future Vision (Oct. 17, 2025), and comparing that to their reports from a few months ago at the beginning of this post shows how fast the technology is developing. ‘To determine what construction tasks humanoids could perform in ten or more years, we assessed activities based on the level of collaboration involved, ease of training, dexterity requirements, and the structure of the work environment. We then categorized use cases according to the degree of relative task feasibility’, in Figure 12 below. 

 

Figure 12. McKinsey on construction tasks and humanoids

Source

 

McKinsey thinks construction leaders should not wait for full-scale deployment to begin preparing for a future in which humanoids and humans work together. Although humanoids are ‘a vision for the future workplace, rather than an immediate reality’, they are ‘expected to demonstrate high commercial feasibility in large-scale infrastructure projects and in residential, commercial, or institutional construction.’ The Bain and Company 2025 Technology Report has a section called Humanoid Robots: From Demos to Deployment that made the same argument on preparation, and forecast they will be used in construction in 10 years for onsite materials handling when battery life has been extended. 

 

It is worth noting some other examples of robots already being used on construction sites. First, robotic excavators. These systems are installed on excavators to allow autonomous operation: Built Robotics (US); Bedrock Robotics (US, raised $80m in July); and Gravis Robotics (Swiss). Second, equipment with remote operation:  Flywheel AI (US, excavators); Brokk (Sweden) demolition robot; and Nyro (US), a humanoid for demolition. Although only one of these examples is a humanoid, Nyro shows how humanoids are likely to make their way onto construction sites, as remote control allows the ‘brain’ to learn by doing, the same way as apprentices in construction have for centuries. Once ‘training’ is complete, autonomous operation follows, which is how robotic excavators have been  developed. 

 

The business model in construction could be ‘Robot as a service’ (RaaS), where businesses lease robotic devices to gain the benefits of automation, such as lower costs, flexibility, and scalability, without the large initial investment and maintenance associated with ownership. This would allow the industry’s many small and medium size contractors and subcontractors to use robotic equipment. With leased humanoids trained for materials handling or specific tasks, there may be robotics subcontractors where the manufacturer is also the subcontractor, like FBR is doing with their truck mounted Hadrian X bricklaying robot. 

 

Amazon’s Robotic System

 

Amazon has been developing robots for use in their warehouses since taking over Kiva Systems in 2012, and now has deployed more than 1 million robots. In 2024 a new fulfillment centre in Shreveport Louisiana uses eight robotic systems, plus two AI models to manage the robots and workflow, one a foundation model the other an agentic model. An October post followed a package through the 10 robots ‘that are supporting the next generation of package fulfillment at Amazon’:

1.        Sequoia uses AI, robotics, and computer vision to consolidate inventory and free up storage.

2.        Hercules is a drive unit that finds and brings pods of items to employees. 

3.        Titan is another drive unit that brings items to employees, it can lift twice as much as Hercules (up to 2,500 pounds, over 1,100 kilos). Titan and Hercules are confined to areas where only authorized robotic specialists can enter, and read barcodes that are stickered to the floor as navigation coordinates.

4.        Vulcan has a sense of touch, and picks and stows items from the highest and lowest inventory pods so employees don’t have to climb ladders or crouch.

5.        Blue Jay is a  ceiling-mounted robotic system that coordinates multiple robotic arms that simultaneously pick, stow, and consolidate packages.

6.        Sparrow is a robotic arm that picks up and moves individual items from containers into specific totes.

7.        Packaging station uses sensors to measure an order’s dimensions and creates a correctly sized, protective bag.

8.        Robin is a robotic arm that grabs packages from conveyor belts and puts them onto robotic drive units to be moved.

9.        Cardinal is similar to Robin, a robotic arm that uses advanced AI and computer vision to select one package from a pile, lift it with air suction, read the label, and place it in the appropriate cart.

10.  Proteus works with Cardinal to move carts from the outbound dock area to the loading dock. Proteus is Amazon’s first fully autonomous mobile robot, using sensors to detect and avoid objects. 

 


Conclusion

 

Robotic technology is rapidly advancing, and in environments like factories and warehouses the variety and use of robots is increasing quickly. For many tasks, non-humanoid automation is more practical, such as a fixed robot arm for welding or picking, and drive units or wheeled couriers for deliveries. Amazon is a good example with their AI coordinated robotic systems, and many firms will follow Amazon’s lead with automated stowing, picking, moving and packing items. However, the human form has the great advantage of functioning in an environment built for humans, therefore companies will keep investing in development of humanoid platforms.

 

A year ago humanoid robots were still at the experimental and prototyping stage.  Now, however, humanoid robots are breaking out, and some are already being used in accommodation, food services, manufacturing, transportation and warehousing. Although these are early days and many humanoid uses are more like trials than mass deployments, production is increasing quickly. The foundation models for humanoids being trained by Field AI and Figure AI will have construction industry applications. 

 

Figure 13 below is from a recent Bain and Company Brief that said ‘we anticipate steady growth in the deployment of humanoid robots through 2030, followed by a rapid uptick thereafter. Market projections range from $38 billion to more than $200 billion by 2035. Global funding in humanoid robotics start-ups is growing quickly, up from about $308 million in 2020 to $1.1 billion in 2024 [US dollars]. Several global tech leaders along with specialized robotics start-ups are ramping up production.’ 

 

Figure 13. Humanoid production plans

Source

 

The Chinese model of state-led development, long-term planning, supply chain and infrastructure investment, combined with selective integration into global markets, is working for humanoids as it did for solar panels, batteries and EVs. Whether one admires this model or not, it has been a success and has delivered technological progress. China is now restructuring and integrating the innovation chain, aiming at technological self-reliance and developing a supply chain of components for humanoids like servo motors, controllers, gear units and machine vision. Although at present Chinese robots may not be as sophisticated as some others, they are much cheaper.

 

Humanoid robots are now taking on tasks in controlled environments like car plants and warehouses, where they could quickly become widely used for repetitive tasks. In other industries there will be a period of human/robot collaboration, as robots take on simple tasks, and dull, dirty, or dangerous work. Then, as humanoid brains based on foundation models develop, and their strength, dexterity, and battery life improves, more applications will follow. Many of the jobs in structured environments that are repetitive and tightly controlled could be done by humanoids in the near future (say five years), and in ten years there will probably be humanoids doing some but not all of the work in most workplaces, including construction sites. 

 

                                                                    *

  

[1] Humanoid 2025 funding in USD includes:

·      Agility Robotics (US) $400m

·      Apptronik (US) $403m, has partnerships with Amazon, Mercedes-Benz, Walmart and Jabil to test Apollo in warehouses and automotive plants

·      Field AI (US) raised $400m for ‘Field Foundation Models’ (general purpose AI models)

·      Figure AI (US) over USD$1 billion raised in September valued the firm at $39 billion, has a multiyear agreement to deploy its robots in BMW’s South Carolina plant

·      Fourier (China) $109m 

·      Neura (Germany) $136m

·      Persona (US) $27m

·      UBTech (China) listed on Hong Kong stock exchange in 2023, raised $119m in 2025

·      Wandercraft (France) $75m



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Saturday, 18 October 2025

Construction is Australia’s Largest Importing Industry

What products are imported by Construction?

 



 

The previous post on products used in Construction was based on the ABS supply-use table, which do not include imported products. However, the ABS input-output tables that the supply-use tables are based on have data on imports of product groups by industry groups, in the same matrix of 115 product groups by 64 industry groups. 

 

This post looks at the latest release of the input-output tables for 2022-23 for the four Construction industry groups of Residential building, Non-residential building, Heavy and civil engineering, and Construction services (the trades). The four industry groups are combined to get shares of total use of products by Construction.

 

The post first looks at imports by the Construction industry groups, and compares their shares of total imports to some other industry groups. The major products imported by Construction in 2022-23 are identified and the Construction share of those imports discussed. 

 

Comparing the share of imports over time is difficult, but there are a couple of measures that can be used. The ABS calculates Primary input content per $100 of final use by industry. Primary inputs are Imports, Compensation of employees, taxes and subsidies, and Gross operating surplus. This estimate includes the initial increase plus the direct and indirect effects. Another estimate from the share of imports in Total intermediate use of products uses the value of imports as a percent of the value of products produced in Australia and used in Construction.  

 

Construction accounts for 80 to 90% of imports of timber and wood products. A 2022 research report for the industry association Forest and Wood Products Australia analysed the demand for sawn softwood timber to 2050 and meeting that demand. The report’s data on imports is discussed.

 

Product Imports by Construction

 

When the four Construction industry groups are combined, their share of total imports in 2022-23 was 17.2%. This makes Construction by far the largest importing industry in Australia.

 

 

Table 1. Imports by Construction industry groups 2022-23

 



In 2022-23 the industry group that had the largest share of total imports was Construction services, at 9.6% it had more than twice the share of the next largest industry group of Road transport’s 3.7%, and three times the share of total imports of many other product groups. 

 

 

 

Table 2. Imports by industry groups 2022-23

 

 

 

Construction has very large shares of some product imports. In particular, for Sawmill and Other wood products the shares are 80 and 90% respectively. For Ceramic products, the Construction share  is 91%. There are several other product groups where Construction is 40 to 50% of imports, such as Iron and steel, Structural and Fabricated metal products, and Electrical equipment. There is a very high import share of 73% for Domestic appliances.


 

Table 3. Major products imported by Construction 2022-23

 


 

Comparison of 2022-23 Import Shares with 2012-13

 

Comparing the share of imports over time is difficult because the input-output tables are in current dollars and not adjusted for inflation. An accurate estimate requires not just local prices each year for each product, but also global prices for traded products and their cost in Australia including customs, insurance and freight. This data is not readily available. There are, however, a couple of measures that can be used

 

Each year the ABS calculates a figure for Primary input content per $100 of final use by industry. Primary inputs are Imports, Compensation of employees, taxes and subsidies, and Gross operating surplus. Final use is the total demand for a product. This estimate includes the initial increase plus the direct and indirect effects of an increase in an industry’s output as demand increases. Because it includes these second and third round multiplier effects it is not a measure of industry output.

 

It does, however, allow a comparison between years of the role of imports in Construction for the four industry groups, and since 2012-13 there has been an increase for all groups. Table 4 shows Non-residential building has had the largest increase of 4.5% since 2012-13. As an aside, in 2022-23, the average of the four Construction industry groups in Table 4 is 18.2%, close to Construction’s 17.2% share of total imports in Table 1.


 

Table 4. Import content of final use in Construction

 


 

Another approach is to use the share of imports in Total intermediate use of products, which is the value of imports as a percent of the value of products produced in Australia and used in Construction.  This is in Table 5, which shows the same trend as table 4, with increases in the import share for the four Construction industry groups, although in this case the largest increase is in Residential building. For Total construction the increase of 2% is equivalent to a 20% increase in imports.


 

Table 5. Imports percent of Australia products used in Construction

 


 

Figure 1. Imports Used in Construction

 


 

 

The increases in imports by the Construction industry groups in Tables 4 and 5 are reflected in the increases in the Construction share of imports of most of the major product groups, in Table 6. This generally reflects the decline of Australian manufacturing, as with Electrical equipment and Domestic appliances, but the increased imports of Sawmill and Wood products is due to demand outstripping local supply. Since 2012-13 there have been some declines, in Petroleum and coal products and Structural metal products for example, but for the majority of products there were increases.


 

Table 6. Major products, percent imported by Construction

 


 

 

Sawn Softwood Imports

 

A 2022 report for Forest and Wood Products Australia, an industry association, was on the Future Market Dynamics and Potential Impacts on Australian Timber Imports.  The report focused on the demand for sawn softwood timber and the challenges in meeting that demand. There is some data on imports and forecasts out to 2050 for demand, local supply and imported timber products. Demand for sawn softwood is primarily driven by the Australian housing industry. In 2002, the proportion of locally produced sawn softwood used for framing and structural purposes in Australian houses was 66.2%, but in 2021 the proportion had fallen to 50.4%. Sawn softwood production peaked at 3.746 million m3 in 2017-18, before the 2019 bushfires affected output.

 

The report argues global sawn softwood production has increased at 1.06% per year over the last 25 years and per capita production of sawn softwood has been falling. There is international competition for timber resources, limiting availability for Australian imports. In 2020-21, local production was 3.619 million m³ while demand was 4.566 million m³, and the gap between sawn softwood demand and local production is expected to widen because local sawn softwood annual production is static at 3.6 to 3.8 million m³. 


 

Figure 2. Timber imports 2005-2021

 

 

The existing softwood plantation estate has not expanded significantly since the early 1990s, and was 1.028 million hectares in 2020. Projected average annual demand for sawn softwood from 2046 to 2050 is 6.5 million m³, with local production limited to 3.6 to 3.8 million m³ the projected gap is 2.6 million m³ by 2050, or 40.5% of total demand. 

 

The report finds Australia's timber imports would need to triple to meet the implied gap. However, global production and imports have been declining, making it unlikely they can fully meet Australian demand in the future, because there will be a significant increase by 2050 due to population growth. Up to 468,000 more hectares of softwood plantations would be needed to meet that demand.

 

 

Figure 3. Sawn Softwood Demand, Local Production and Implied Gap 2021–2050

 


Conclusion

 

It is not widely recognised that, of all Australian industries, Construction is by far the largest importer of products. Combining the four Construction industry groups of Residential building (3.3%), Non-residential building (2.3%), Heavy and civil engineering (2.1%) and Construction services (9.6%), Total Construction imports were 17.2% of total imports by value in 2022-23. The industry group with the largest share of products imported into Australia is Construction services, at 9.6% of total imports it is more than twice the second largest Road transport, with 3.7%.

 

Construction has very large shares of some product imports. For Sawmill and Other wood products the shares are 80 and 90% respectively, for Ceramic products, the share  is 91%, and for Domestic appliances imports are 73% of the value of products used.

 

The ABS calculates the import share for Construction of Primary inputs per $100 of final use by industry group. For Residential building this was 19.7%, for Non-residential building 20.2%, for Heavy and civil engineering 14.4% and for Construction services 18.5%. Since 2012-13 the import share of final inputs has increased by 4.5% for Non-residential building and by 1 to 2% for the other groups.

 

Another estimate is the share of imports in Total intermediate use of products, which is the value of imports as a percent of the value of products produced in Australia and used in Construction.  This has the same trend since 2012-13 as Primary inputs per $100, with increases in the import share for the four Construction industry groups, although in this case the largest increase was 3% in Residential building. For Total construction the increase of 2% is equivalent to a 20% increase in imports.

 

The significant role of imported products in Australian construction is not widely recognised, and has not been included in any of the recent reports on the industry. There could be two reasons for this lack of attention. The first is simple acceptance that manufacturing in Australia is too expensive, and lower cost imports have won market share. Closely allied to that is the idea of lack of scale, because the domestic market is too small to support globally competitive factories. There are other contributing factors like energy costs, which could be among the lowest in the world if most of our natural gas was available to local industry instead of being exported by foreign multinationals, or if sufficient solar energy had been built over the last decade. 

 

A second reason could be reluctance to highlight the lack of investment in capacity by Australian business and fund managers. This is most obvious in softwood plantations, where despite growing demand, the area planted in 2020 was the same as in 2000, while imports of sawn softwood used for framing and structural purposes have increased to over 50% of demand. A report for Forest and Wood Products Australia finds Australia's imports of sawn softwood would need to triple to 2.062 million m³ a year to meet projected demand. However, global production has been declining, making it unlikely imports can meet that demand.

 

The decline in Australian manufacturing is reflected in the increase in imported products used in Construction. While there are many reasons for this decline, fundamentally it is because of the strength of the Australian dollar from the high value of mining and resource exports. This is known as ‘Dutch disease’, after the hollowing out of Dutch manufacturing and agriculture after the 1959 discovery of the North Sea oil and gas fields led to an increase in gas exports that boosted the currency and made other exports uncompetitive. This has been the experience of Australia over the last couple of decades, as the boom in iron ore, coal and gas exports has reduced the competitiveness of other exports and import-competing industries.

 

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Saturday, 4 October 2025

Sources of Products Used in Australian Construction

Changes in product shares suggest an increase in prefabrication

 


The Australian Bureau of Statistics publishes a set of supply-use tables every year. These are the ‘building blocks’ of gross domestic product, measured as gross value added for all industries [1]. National accounts estimates are benchmarked to the supply-use tables to maintain consistency within the system from year to year. Although the data goes back to 1994-95, the first publication of supply-use tables by the ABS was for 2016-17. 

The ABS explains the supply table shows the total supply of products from domestic and foreign producers, and the use table the amount of a product purchased by each industry as an intermediate input into the industry’s production process. These products are valued at purchasers’ prices, meaning that taxes, transport costs, and wholesale and retail trade margins are included in the total. A row in the table represents a product group and a column represents an industry group. 

There are 68 industry groups. Construction is divided into four industry groups: Residential building, Non-residential building, Heavy and civil engineering, and Construction services (the trades). There are 115 product groups, however, many have little or no use by construction. Because many product are used, no single group has a significant share of the total, with the exception of Construction services. Examples of product groups with zero use are Aircraft manufacturing, Water and Gas supply, Education, Library, and Social care services. Examples of very low use (under 1% of the total) are Dairy products, Wholesale and Retail trade, Sports, and Personal services. 

 The data in this post is from the use table. It first breaks down the shares of each of the Construction industry groups in total Construction and then their share of use of Construction services. This within industry supply is explained. The post next identifies the seven major product groups currently used in construction, using the most recent data for 2022-23, and details the major product groups in manufacturing and services. In these tables the four industry groups have been combined to get shares of total use of products by Construction. 

The post then looks at changes in the use of products, comparing the 2016-17, 2019-20 and 2022-23 data. Use table values are in current dollars, and the historical data is not adjusted for inflation. Therefore, the analysis uses the percentage shares of the industry and product groups in total construction, rather than the dollar values.


Structure of the Construction Industry

Table 1 shows the total use of products by the four industry groups, with Construction services accounting for 51% of the total value of products used. These shares are broadly in line with the shares of work done in 2022-23. 

Table 1. Value of use of products by Construction industry groups 2022-23


However, Construction services is also the largest single source of products for all Construction industry groups, because Construction services provide many intermediate inputs to a large number of tasks and processes, and the value of that input includes the wages and salaries of more than three quarters of a million workers employed in Construction services. As Table 2 shows, Construction services supplied 41% of the products used in construction, and between 35 and 50% of all intermediate inputs, including 41% to itself.  

Table 2. Construction services share of products used 2022-23


Intermediate Supply of Inputs in Construction

 Many industries are not just end producers but also consumers of their own output. In a supply-use table, when an industry supplies products to itself some of its output is being used internally, within the industry, as an intermediate input to produce more goods or services. This is easy to see with vertical integration, where different stages of production occur within the same firm, for example a steel manufacturer produces raw steel and uses it to make finished steel products, or a chemicals manufacturer uses its own basic products to make more complex ones [2]. 

In construction, a contractor may do demolition, steel fabrication or precast concrete inhouse, or directly employ trades like carpenters, electricians or form workers. Many large firms use a hybrid model, self-performing selected core tasks while subcontracting specialised work. Contractors will often supply many of the materials and components used in a project, even if placed or fixed by a subcontractor, and the value of those items is included in their industry group not Construction services. 

Subcontractors self-supply when they provide their own materials, tools, equipment, and expertise rather than relying on the head contractor. For example, a plumbing subcontractor can bring their own pipes, fittings, and fixtures, or a tiling subcontractor can supply tiles, grout, and adhesives. Subcontractors can use their own machinery and tools, and they self-supply skilled labour. Sometimes they provide design-build services like HVAC systems, custom cabinetry or engineered steel framing.

 The stages of a construction project are all intermediate inputs, from site preparation through structural work and concreting, followed by trades like electrical, plumbing, HVAC, roofing, and painting. Thus there is a large element of self-supply in construction, because contractors supply many of the materials and equipment used and the widespread use of subcontracting and pyramid contracting for specialised trades. This is why Construction services supply 41% of the services and products used within construction. 


 Current Data for 2022-23

 The seven largest categories of products and services used by the construction industry totalled $115.3 billion in value in 2022-23, over a quarter of total use value. These were: 

The following tables have the percent share of product groups that accounted for over 45% of construction’s total use of products in that year. Adding Construction services share of 41%, this is over 85% of the goods and services used in construction. To get a clearer perspective of the importance of the products used in construction, the following tables have two columns, one showing product shares of total construction and the other their shares of the total when Construction services 41% share is excluded. 

Manufactured Inputs

Manufacturing product groups add up to 32% of the total, excluding food and beverages. Table 3 has the major manufacturing product groups supplying 1% or more to Construction, accounting for over 27% of the total and 45% of the adjusted total. After Construction services, these twelve manufacturing products make up the largest group of inputs to construction. 

Table 3. Manufacturing product groups with 1% or more use in total Construction

Services Inputs

 Table 4 has the eleven major service product groups. These contribute nearly 19% of the total, or 32% excluding Construction services. Finance includes banks, Regulatory services include regulation, licensing and inspection activities, Rental and Hiring Services (except Real Estate) includes motor vehicles and transport equipment, and hiring, leasing or renting heavy machinery and scaffolding without operators [3]. Computer systems design and related services is included in the table to emphasise the low level of expenditure on these services. Also of note is the high value and share of Public administration and regulatory services. 

Table 4. Service product groups


Industry Input Shares Since 2017

 Data from the three use tables for 2016-17, 2019-20 and 2022-23 are compared. Table 5 has the industry group shares of total construction in those years.

Table 5. Share of Construction industry groups in total

Table 6 has the share of Construction services in the inputs to the industry groups. This shows a gradual change in the structure of the industry, as the share of Construction services in total Construction declined by 2.7% between 2016-17 and 2022-23.

Table 6. Construction services share of products in Industry groups

 The share in total Construction of the major manufacturing product groups increased by 1.4% between 2016-17. However, as table 7 shows, there were some manufacturing products with a decreased share, like Cement, Plaster and Other wood products, some were stable, like Petroleum and coal and Polymer products, while the others like Sawmill products and Electrical equipment had increases. The big changes in shares were increases in Iron and steel, Structural metal and Other fabricated metal products, which strongly suggests there has been an increase in prefabrication and offsite manufacturing in construction. 

 Table 7. Manufacturing product groups percent of total construction

The was also an increase in the share of the eleven major services product groups. Again, there is a mixture, with decreases in Finance, Public administration and regulation and Non-residential property services and rental and hiring, some unchanged like Auxiliary finance and insurance and Computer systems design, and some with increases like Professional, scientific and technical services, Building cleaning, pest control other support, and Automotive repair and maintenance. 

 Table 8. Services product groups percent of total construction

Between 2016-17 and 2922-23 there was a decline in Construction services’ share of products used, from 44.1% to 41.4%, matched by a similar small and gradual increase in the shares of the major manufactured products from 25.8% to 27.3% and of services products from 18.3% to 18.9%. Although these shifts of one or two percent are too small to indicate serious structural change, they do suggest the industry is continuing to evolve and substitute offsite manufacture and design work for some of the onsite work done by subcontractors. 

Figure 1. Changes in product groups used in Construction

Source: ABS 5217, Table 2. 

 

Conclusion

The supply-use tables from the ABS provide granular detail on the flow of goods and services between industries. The use table shows the amount of a product purchased by each industry as an intermediate input into the industry’s production process. There are 68 industry groups and 115 product groups in the table. The most recent data is for 2022-23. Construction is divided into four product groups and four industry groups.

The shares of the four Construction industry groups in the $444bn total of products used by Construction in 2022-23 was: Residential building 21%, Non-residential building 20%, Heavy and civil engineering 10%, and Construction services (the trades) 50%. A distinctive feature of Construction is the within industry supply of 41% of products used from Construction services. When an industry supplies products to itself, some of its output is being used as an intermediate input to produce more goods or services. 

 Contractors will often supply many of the materials and components used in a project, even if placed or fixed by a subcontractor, and the value of those items is included in their industry group not Construction services. Subcontractors self-supply when they provide their own materials, tools, equipment, and expertise rather than relying on the head contractor. Therefore, there is a large element of self-supply in construction, because contractors supply many of the materials and equipment used and the extent of subcontracting.

In this analysis the four industry groups have been combined to get shares of total use of products by construction. After Construction services, the seven major product groups currently used in construction accounted for another 26% of all products. The largest product or service used was Professional, scientific and technical services ($33bn), followed by Wood products ($22bn), Structural metal ($16bn) and Iron and steel products ($14bn).  The other three were Polymer products, Electrical equipment and Cement/lime/ready-mixed concrete, all around $12bn. These seven largest categories accounted for accounted for 26% of total inputs to construction activity. 

More broadly, the twelve major manufactured product groups were 27.2% of all use, and the eleven major service product groups were 18.9% of all products used. Looking at changes in the percentage shares of product groups in total construction, comparing the 2016-17, 2019-20 and 2022-23 use tables, there was a decline in Construction services’ share of products used, from 44.1% to 41.4%, matched by small increases in the shares of the major manufactured and services products, from 25.8% to 27.3% and from 18.3% to 18.9% respectively. 

 The big changes in product shares between 2016-17 and 2022-23 were increases in Professional, scientific and technical services, Iron and steel, Structural metal and Other fabricated metal products. These changes in product shares strongly suggest there has been an increase in prefabrication and the industry is continuing to substitute offsite manufacture and design work for onsite work done by subcontractors.

                                                             *

 [1] This is the production approach to measuring GDP, as the sum of gross value added by all  industries. This is the difference between an industry’s cost of inputs and its value of output. The supply-use tables align the income, expenditure and production approaches used to measure GDP.  

[2] Measuring industry self-supply accurately is important for understanding productivity, cost structures, and value-added in the national accounts.

 [3] These definitions are from the Australian and New Zealand Standard Industrial Classification (ANZSIC). 


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