Showing posts with label prefabricated building. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prefabricated building. Show all posts

Thursday 22 September 2022

Comparisons of Construction to Manufacturing Use Flawed Data

 


Construction productivity has been negatively compared with manufacturing (e.g. McKinsey), and the comparisons are typically between all of construction and all of manufacturing. The problem is that both are averages of extremely varied economic activities of firms, based on data collected by the standard industrial classification (SIC) system. This makes useful comparisons between the two difficult, as this post using UK data argues. The post first breaks down industry statistics on UK construction and manufacturing to show the structural differences, and then compares construction to the car industry, showing a comparison between the two requires including repair and maintenance with vehicle manufacture. Lessons from other industries and their production methods and processes can be useful and informative, however, comparing performance between industries is very difficult without adjustments to make the subjects comparable.

 

The production of building elements and components somewhere other than the construction site has been variously called prefabrication, pre-cast and pre-assembly construction, and offsite manufacturing (OSM). The degree of OSM and preassembly varies from basic sub-assemblies to entire modules, and the use of OSM varies greatly from country to country. Types of offsite construction are panelised systems, volumetric systems with partial assembly of rooms, units or pods offsite, and factory built modular components or homes. Offsite manufacture is used to describe factory production and preassembly of components, elements or modules. Prefabrication is used to describe offsite production of components that are installed onsite. The idea that OSM and prefabrication are the solution to problems of poor quality and low productivity in construction became central to the movement to ‘reform’ construction by making it more like manufacturing.

 

Advocates of industrialized building argued for construction to adopt similar production practices to manufacturing, particularly car manufacturing. However, while there are some factory made buildings, the number and type of standardized buildings is limited, whereas opportunities for producers of standardized construction products are widespread. Onsite production is organized around those standard parts and materials but manufacturing, in contrast, is organized around standardised products and continuous production runs. 

 

In UK construction the largest grouping by number of enterprises and employment is specialised construction, typically single trade contractors (there are 17 individual industries or trades under SIC 43). The largest group by turnover is building contractors, including residential and non-residential building with only two SIC sub-categories. Civil engineering contractors have the smallest number of enterprises and employment but the highest average number of employees and highest average turnover per enterprise. Civil engineering work is typically of larger scale compared to building work.

 


Table 1. UK Construction turnover 2019



Source:  Meikle, J. and de Valence, G. 2022. Construction products and producers: One industry or three, in Best, R. and Meikle, J. (eds.) Describing Construction: Industries, projects and firms, London: Taylor and Francis. Data from ONS Annual Business Survey 2018.

 


Data on construction turnover by size of firm includes the value of subcontracting and construction work by non-contractors. The distribution of construction turnover by number and size of firm and average turnover per firm is: 99% of construction firms have less than 50 employees and are responsible for just over 50% of turnover; and 94% of firms have less than 10 employees and are responsible for around 35% of turnover. At the other end of the size scale, less than 1% of firms, those with 50 or more employees, are responsible for the other 50% of turnover. Around 0.1%, a few hundred, are responsible for around 30% of turnover and each of these has an annual turnover averaging around £275 million. The structure of the construction typically takes this form.   


 

Table 2. Construction firms by employment 2019


Source:  Meikle, J. and de Valence, G. 2022. Construction products and producers: One industry or three, in Best, R. and Meikle, J. (eds.) Describing Construction: Industries, projects and firms, London: Taylor and Francis. Data from ONS Annual Business Survey 2018.


 

Although the SIC groups all construction firms into a single category, that is for statistical convenience based on conventions developed originally for classifying manufacturing. The exclusion of design from construction output while included in manufacturing and the inclusion of R&M in construction but not in manufacturing is one result.[i] Another is the view of construction as a single industry, producing and maintaining buildings and structures, despite their many different types and the differences in the producers and processes used in their delivery. 

 

Manufacturing in the UK comprises 24 two-digit industrial groups (SIC 10 to SIC 33), for example, food products (SIC 10), manufacture of paper and paper products (SIC 17) and manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (SIC 29); and 325 individual industries.  Manufacturing of fabricated metal products except machinery and equipment (SIC 25) is the largest two-digit group with 22 individual industries, 26,301 total group enterprises and total group turnover of  £23.6 billion; the smallest is the single industry group of manufacture of tobacco products (SIC 12) with nine enterprises and a turnover of £12 million.  Manufacturing is not only relatively large but extremely diverse and industry policies have reflected that by targeting specific industries such as IT and automobiles for example.

 

The table below shows that total UK Construction turnover is less than 50% of Manufacturing turnover, although it is much larger than any individual manufacturing industry.  Manufacturing has 21% of firms that are small and medium size, construction has 6%, and manufacturing turnover is more concentrated in the larger firms.

 

 

Table 3. UK construction and manufacturing compared by size of firm


Source: Meikle, J. and de Valence, G. 2022. Construction products and producers: One industry or three, in Best, R. and Meikle, J. (eds.) Describing Construction: Industries, projects and firms, London: Taylor and Francis. Data from ONS Annual Business Survey 2018.

 


The largest UK manufacturing industry in 2018 was motor vehicles, with 22% of construction turnover and 5.5% of construction employment, and it is manufacture of motor vehicles that is often compared with construction and used as the example to be followed in OSM. Based on turnover per employee (an imperfect but indicative measure of productivity), vehicle manufacturing (&07,965) is over three times as productive as construction (197,902). This might be the case, or it may be a statistical illusion, created by the framework of the SIC.

 

 

Table 4. Comparing UK construction and vehicle manufacture 2018


Source: Meikle, J. and de Valence, G. 2022. Construction products and producers: One industry or three, in Best, R. and Meikle, J. (eds.) Describing Construction: Industries, projects and firms, London: Taylor and Francis. Data from ONS Annual Business Survey 2018.

 

 

Table 5 breaks down construction to its main components and adjusts manufacturing by including both the manufacture and repair and the maintenance of motor vehicles.  All construction includes both new construction and the repair and maintenance of existing buildings and works. The manufacture of motor vehicles does not. In order to adjust for this, maintenance of vehicles (SIC 45.2) should be added to manufacture of vehicles (SIC 29.1) to make the groups more comparable. When vehicle maintenance is added to manufacture, turnover increases by 58% but employment increases by almost 180%.  

 

This allows a more realistic comparison and reveals that motor vehicles and their maintenance (SIC 29.1 plus SIC  45.2) has almost the same turnover per worker  (1.6mn) as building construction (1.4mn), twice that of specialist construction (0.9mn) but less than engineering construction (2.1mn).  Turnover per worker is a metric of productivity and, on this basis, all construction is less productive than all manufacturing and much less productive than motor vehicle production. However, when repair is added to manufacture, the car industry is on a par with building, the largest part of construction. 

 

 

Table 5. Turnover and employment by SIC division 2018


Source:  Meikle, J. and de Valence, G. 2022. Construction products and producers: One industry or three, in Best, R. and Meikle, J. (eds.) Describing Construction: Industries, projects and firms, London: Taylor and Francis. Data from ONS Annual Business Survey 2018.


 

With the differences in these industries in terms of firm size, turnover and employment, it is difficult to draw clear conclusions from a comparison of their structure, economic performance or productivity. Vehicle manufacture and, to a lesser extent vehicle repair and maintenance, are capital intensive businesses. Construction, generally, is not, although a few activities like tunnelling and prefabricated housing are. Comparisons between manufacturing and construction based on the figures from the SIC are not helpful or accurate without adjustment.   

 

Nevertheless, on the basis of these comparisons, for the last three decades advocates for applying production methods from car manufacturing to offsite manufacturing in construction have argued this is necessary to improve construction productivity and products. Despite the distinctly different characteristics of manufacturing and construction there have been and are many attempts to industrialize construction. However, after decades of efforts to promote OSM, the market share of OSM remains small, estimates are low single digits of total construction work in the UK, US and Australia. Success elsewhere is restricted to specific markets such as fast food outlets and hotels, or house manufacturers like the Japanese and Scandinavian firms Sekisui and Ikea. 

 

The US and UK governments have both supported OSM, with the UK government funding research, publishing case studies and promoting OSM in construction for decades.[i] In the US a Technology Roadmap for Advanced panelised construction was produced in 2003 for the Department of Housing and Urban Development as a Partnership for Advanced Technology in Housing (PATH[ii]). Despite these efforts, offsite production is not industry practice in either country. Although pre-cast concrete and panelised construction are widely used, OSM has not led to significant advances in mechanization or required a thorough reorganization of project management methods.  

 

OSM markets exist mainly in housing and institutional building, wherever it is the most effective or efficient piece of technology available and there is a lot of repetition from project to project. This manufacturing-centric view of progress in construction, endorsed by numerous government and industry reports, was the end point of the development trajectory from the first to the third industrial revolutions. Despite all efforts this has not become the primary system of construction of the built environment because OSM does not deliver a decisive advantage over onsite production for the great majority of projects. Instead, construction has a deep, diverse and specialised value chain that resists integration because it is flexible and adapted to economic variability.




[i] Farmer, M. 2016. Modernise or die, London: Construction Leadership Council.

[ii] PATH, 2004. Technology Roadmap: Advanced panelised construction, 2003 Progress Report. Partnership for Advanced Technology in Housing (PATH), Department of Housing and Urban Development, Office of Policy Development and Research, Washington, D.C.

[i] Despite the importance of repair and maintenance, only Canada has an annual business capital and repair expenditures survey. Between 2006 and 2016 construction R&M by firms averaged nine percent of their total capital expenditure, or around 1.2 percent of GDP, ranging between one percent of GDP in 2006 and 1.3 percent in 2012. Statistics Canada. Table: 34-10-0035-01 Capital and repair expenditures, non-residential tangible assets


Sunday 21 October 2018

Prefabricated Housing Rising Again

New entrants with new strategies: Amazon, L&G and Katerra


Off-site manufacturing, modular and prefabricated building have been transforming construction like nuclear fusion has been transforming energy: they have both been twenty years away from working at scale for the last 60 years. The brutal economies of scale and scope in a project-based, geographically dispersed industry subject to extreme demand swings have bought previous periods of success to an end, one reason the history of prefabrication features major projects like the Great Exhibition in 1855 and more recently the Oresund Bridge and Crossrail’s tunnels and stations. At an industry level, prefabrication has been successful in specific niche markets, like institutional building in the UK, or house manufacturers like the Japanese and Scandinavian firms Sekisui and Ikea. The other problem at an industry level is the lack of standardisation, although some countries such as the Netherlands try to address this through their building codes.

Along the supply chain, however, many firms have integrated the various technologies needed to produce building components and elements with the barrier to entry, particularly for SMEs, the level of investment required. The up-front capital requirements of prefabrication make it a capital-intensive form of production, which brings high fixed costs in a cyclic industry characterised by demand volatility over the cycle. This means the success or failure of the underpinning business model can determine the success or (typically) the eventual failure of the investment. A batch of new US prefab housing firms went down after the GFC in 2007, for example, demonstrating the importance of the relationship between the business model and the viability of prefabricated building.

Another interesting characteristic of prefabricated building has been the entry by large firms, sometimes from outside the industry, who have had the capital to invest and an appetite for risk, given that history. The recent news that Amazon has invested in a Californian prefabricated housing manufacturer is therefore, possibly, important. Amazon is investing heavily in smart home technology. This post also looks at two other firms that are recent entrants into prefabricated and manufactured housing, UK insurance company L&G, and vertically integrated US builder Katerra. Of particular interest is the way these two companies are building volume, by developing a pipeline of projects for their factories to supply. It concludes with a look at the business model used for the mail order houses sold by Sears Roebuck a hundred years ago in the US. By coincidence, this week Sears Roebuck missed a debt payment and filed for bankruptcy, a reminder that no business model lasts forever, no matter how successful.


Amazon

All the large tech firms have venture capital subsidiaries that invest in early stage start-ups. For Amazon it is the Alexa Fund, which provides funding for voice technology innovation and ways to improve the way people use the technology. In September, US start-up Plant Prefab had a $6.7 million Series A funding round which included Obvious Ventures and the Alexa Fund. While this is Amazon’s first investment in prefab construction, it has been selling tiny modular houses made by MODS since last year.

Plant Prefab manufactures custom single and multi-family homes in Rialto, California, using a patented building system. According to founder and CEO Steve Glenn, “Most existing prefabrication companies in the US focus on standard, low quality, non-sustainable mobile and modular homes -- for suburban communities. Plant Prefab is unique in that we’re focused on custom, high quality, very sustainable homes and we have a special facility and a patented building system optimized for this. We build based on client’s architects or clients can select from a growing number of homes we offer from world-class architects, all of which can be customized for specific lots and client needs. By building in an all-weather facility with lower cost and staff labour, we offer clients a more reliable, time and cost-effective alternative to local, urban general contractors.”

Amazon’s investment in Plant Prefab comes with a new line of smart home devices, suggesting the company sees a potential new market driven by smart home technology. Amazon already has a deal with Lennar, the largest homebuilder in the US, to pre-install Alexa in all their new homes. There is an obvious business model here, but also many possibilities. Amazon typically offers a combination of fee for service and subscription services, which could be adapted for mortgage or rental markets for example. As connectedness deepens and extends, Amazon might potentially become a major player in the future residential building industry, in some form.


Plant Prefab’s factory in Rialto, California.


Legal and General

Legal and General is a 180 year old British insurance company, today one of the largest investment management firms in the world. In 2016 they announced plans to manufacture homes, however the opening of L&G’s offsite housebuilding factory near Leeds has seen, and is seeing, many delays. Although the first units were delivered in mid-2017, regular production is only now being achieved and the factory is expanding. L&G is targeting affordable housing, and set up a subsidiary called Legal and General Modular Homes:

Our Vision is ambitious and is underpinned by our mission statement; “We deliver desirable homes through the industrialisation of volume housing supply”. Legal & General has a long heritage in providing housing in the UK and sees modular construction as a natural evolution and extension of its position in this market. Modular construction is set to revolutionise the house building sector bringing new materials along with methods and processes used in other industries, such as automotive and aerospace, to raise productivity and help to address the UK’s chronic shortfall of new homes. Our investment in Europe's largest modular homes factory demonstrates our ambition to inject capital into the Housing sector alongside the creation of our Build to Rent, Later Living and Housebuilding businesses. Located in Sherburn in Elmet, near Leeds, our 550,000 sq ft factory produces a range of typologies with the capacity to produce up to 3,000 homes per year, employing several hundred local people. 

The business model is this: “Legal & General Capital is building a more natural and sustainable model – one in which institutional investors are the long-term holders of the assets working alongside the best-in-class affordable housing operators who will provide the highest-quality housing management."

L&G has been investing heavily in the UK housing market over the last few years, and aims to become the leading private affordable housing provider in the country, with Legal & General Affordable Homes delivering 3,000 homes a year by 2022. They have a current pipeline of around 2,000 build-to-rent homes. And in April 2018 L&G's investment arm bought the half share it didn’t own in Cala, for £315mn, a property developer with a pipeline of 3,000 homes. L&G also run retirement villages, they have 7 with 1,100 homes. By one estimate, L&G’s total investment in build-to-rent currently stands at £1.5bn, with the aim to have 6,000 homes in planning, development or operation by the end of 2019.



Katerra

Katerra is another Californian start-up, founded in 2015. In 2017 it raised $130 million in a Series C funding round, reaching a $1 billion valuation, The company’s goal is complete vertical integration of design and construction, from concept sketches of a building to installing the bolts that hold it together. On its projects the company is typically the architect, off-site manufacturer and on-site contractor, and usually contracts directly with owners.

The company started by developing the software to manage an extensive supply chain for fixtures and fittings from around the world, but particularly China, and then added a factory in Phoenix making roof trusses, cabinets, wall panels, and other elements. In September2017 it announced plans to build a  factory that will make panels of cross-laminated timber, a high-tech structural wood, and later said it planned to open up to seven more plants and warehouses around the US as the business model gets rolled out.

One of the company’s three founders is a multi-family developer, and his projects provided the initial pipeline of work that made the company viable. Initially, buildings were designed by outside architects, but in 2016 the company started a design division. In 2018, five months after raising another $865 million in venture capital from funders led by SoftBank’s Vision Fund, Katerra acquired Michael Green Architecture and architects Lord Aeck Sargent. The latter brings a healthy order book across a wider range of buildings, the former is a leading advocate of CLT and high-rise buildings.

Katerra is essentially a technology play. A second founder has a tech venture capital fund, the third and CEO did a stint at Tesla. Their ambition is to leverage new technologies to transform building by linking design and production through software. It designs buildings in Revit and then converts the files to a different format for machines in the factory. Also, SAP HANA, a real-time data processing application, and the Internet of Things are used to achieve “deep integration and newfound efficiencies.” A nice time lapse of one of their buildings is here:


Mail Order Houses

A bit over a century before Ikea sold their first Boklok house, one fifth of Americans were subscribers to the Sears and Roebuck Mail Order Catalogue. Anyone anywhere in the country could order a copy for free, look through it, order something, and have it delivered to their door. At its peak the Sears catalogue offered over 100,000 items on 1,400 pages, and in 1908 they began offering houses. While not the first company to sell kit homes by mail order, Sears came to dominate the mail-order market. Between 1908 and 1940 it delivered 75,000 homes.

The Sears Modern Homes Program offered complete houses, what would now be called ‘kit homes’. Customers selected from dozens of different models, then they could order blueprints, send in a check, and a few weeks later a train car would arrive with the door secured by a small red wax seal. The new owner would open up the boxcar to find over 10,000 pieces of framing lumber, 20,000 cedar shakes, and everything else needed to build the home. The lumber came precut with an instruction booklet, and Sears promised that, without a carpenter, a person could finish their mail order home in less than 90 days.

Then, in 1911, Sears began offering mortgages to their customers. The Sears home mortgage program became one of the keys to success (all those homes, and their new, mostly young homeowners, needed furnishing and decorating and so on). In lowering the barrier to entry, it allowed Sears to sell more kit homes faster than any of its competitors. But when the Great Depression came things got ugly, over the 1930s the company ended up foreclosing on tens of thousands of its customers. It was a public relations disaster.

After years of declining sales, Sears finally closed its Modern Homes department in 1940. A few kit home manufacturers that hadn’t sold mortgages survived, but the Sears boom was over. The next housing boom was the rise of the suburbs and the prefab home. As demand surged in the postwar years, US companies such as Lustron and the National Homes Corporation factory built homes by the thousands.